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Just two days before the NYC mayoral election, Michael Lange made a bold forecast – not just the winner overall, but precinct by precinct. Lange, an expert in elections born and raised in New York City, has spent over a decade in left-leaning activism and emerged as a kind of well-known figure this year for his thorough analyses into municipal statistics and polling.

He published his highly detailed prediction map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani was victorious while failed to predict the independent candidate’s solid showing – on his Substack, the Narrative War. Lange possesses a talent for witty coinages. He pointed out, for instance, the split between the “commie corridor”, running from Park Slope to Bushwick to Astoria, where he forecasted (correctly) that Mamdani would win by huge margins, and the “capitalist corridor” on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. In those areas, “the Free Press and financial newspapers outrank the New York Times” in readership and the majority of electors favored the independent, who ran as a moderate alternative.

Election Night Patterns and Surprises

What was your night?

I had to do that because they were dropping around 200,000 votes into the tally every few minutes! I was actually somewhat anxious initially: The candidate led the initial ballots by a dozen percentage points, but there were two big batches of votes that came in later and the advantage dropped from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.

You know, there was a world in which yesterday went kind of poorly for him, where Cuomo would have basically doubling his votes from the Democratic primary. However the winner gained half a million supporters to his initial base, and this was critical why he succeeded. He campaigned and massively expanded his base from the primary.

Expanding Support

How did the mayor-elect get those extra votes from?

He built the coalition that progressives always wanted to build: it’s multiracial, it’s young, tenants and individuals facing cost pressures. He improved significantly with Black and Hispanic voters, working- and middle-class voters, relative to the earlier election. Plus he further maximized his base of liberal progressives, young leftists, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without expanding his appeal.

He created the alliance that the left long aimed for: diverse, young, renters and people struggling with costs

There were also a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It is a genuine phenomenon, confined to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Muslims. Electors in ethnic enclaves that supported the former president previously went for the progressive now. But I wouldn’t say he was gaining white working-class voters and Trump loyalists.

Turnout and Effects

One of the big stories of the election was the sky-high participation. Who did that help?

Each candidate. Participation was much greater than I had expected. I thought it could go over two million, but it reached 2.3 million – that is a huge number of participants. Existed a decent opposition group, who were motivated, but his supporters was also motivated, and that sufficed to win.

You predicted he’d get over 50% of the vote. Is he on course for that?

Currently it appears he’s favored to get over 50%. He’s at just over 50% but there’s still probably 200,000 votes uncounted as of Wednesday morning. So it’s not it’s definitive, but I believe probable, and I wish he does because afterwards none can claim the Republican was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

The GOP candidate, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His vote completely collapsed.

He lost a single precinct in any area. Including Tottenville in Staten Island, similar to an 88% Trump area. That really was unexpected. The independent kept Caucasian districts, affluent zones and devout communities, and then added many Republicans on Staten Island with a strong turnout. I believe there was a lot of tactical voting by GOP voters. This happened before Trump endorsed for the candidate, but it assisted. It might have changed the outcome unless Mamdani’s coalition hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your much mentioned left-wing base – did backing for Mamdani overwhelming in those areas of the boroughs?

I think existed a little dilution of the commie corridor in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have more older white ethnic folks. There, instance, the Greek landlords and residents supported the independent. So there was some opposition. But overall, largely the leftist base is a key factor why Mamdani prevailed – he was polling between 77% and 83% in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Community Support

Prior to the vote there was coverage on whether the candidate was making inroads with the community. Any indication that he did?

There are areas with many non-religious and left-inclined voters – like specific locales – where he did well. But in the affluent districts like the Upper East Side, his position on Israel was influential there. Similarly in the more middle-class Jewish areas like Queens neighborhoods, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they favored the independent. And also, there are newcomers from the former Soviet Union in southern Brooklyn, they were pretty staunchly supportive. Therefore I don’t know if existed major surprises on this one, but Mamdani retained more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and including sections of the another locale by big margins.

Political Impact

Has Mamdani rewritten what the city means politically? Will the commie corridor serve as a springboard for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest figures from the left come from a few areas in the boroughs. I’m sure that there will be more of that – people will come from these areas to be promoted to higher office.

But I believe that each urban center in America can have similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the centers of leftwing power in America – because they’re young, tenancy is common and they are places where people are crushed by the inequalities we face.