Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
