Keir Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly started a concerted effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an impending byelection.

Serious Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Procedure

Multiple members on the party's ruling NEC have reportedly suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are desperate to head off any potential leadership challenge.

The party apparatus reportedly swung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he caused consternation in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly contest the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any possible leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of insiders also shared fears about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a significant challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.