A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. They composes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
